As Angola is on the way to become the largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa, overtaking Nigeria in 2016, the Economist Intelligence Unit reports that the country needs to diversify its Economy and to boost the importance of the non-oil sector.
However, In its latest report, EIU declares that oil production in Angola will begin to decline in 2020 due to depletion of reserves, “underscoring the importance of the authorities making faster progress in their efforts to diversify the economy.”
Online news website Macau Hub writes that “According to the Angolan government, the weight of oil production in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has declined in the last five years, from 60-65 percent to 41-43 percent, reflecting the higher contribution of the other sectors” and “Estimated Angolan oil production in 2020 is 2 million barrels a day, retreating sharply to 1.4 million barrels in 2040”.
“The EIA forecast was well received in Luanda” says the same article, “particularly at a time when the country is faced with a drop in oil revenues, which the authorities already assume will affect the growth of GDP for this year, despite 8 percent growth in the non-oil economy”.
For the 2015-2019 period, the EIU forecasts average annual growth of 5.9 percent driven by increased oil production and investment. Oil accounts for around 90 percent of Angolan exports and almost half of Angola’s output – 46 to 48 percent – is sent to China, Macau Hub notes.